Phillips was tepid at best and at worst, a dangerous place to go to market with your contemporary art wares. The conclusion was don't sell at Phillips work that could be accepted for consignment at either Sotheby's or Christie's (in contrast to some big-ticket items at the evening sale); but, were there any buying opportunities on the cheap? One must be mindful of the provenance of an artwork if ever it is deemed time to rearrange the walls and sell! Phillips didn't seem capable of selling off even basic Polkes or Richters. Nevertheless, a word on Warhol as far as Polaroids are concerned: stay away from Dennis Hopper altogether, images of the actor were duds at both Sotheby's and Phillips. If you were intent on buying Warhol Polaroids for which the estate is said to be in possession of thousands, Phillips offered a nearly 10% discount on an object that was virtually identical to what the other houses were offering. Towards the end of Phillips day sale, nearly everything went unsold, which could have reflected purchasers taxed attention spans and provided some opportunities (to dispose of some spare cash, earmarked for say, food or shoes). For instance, a 1988 Thomas Ruff photograph for less than $1000 (all prices quoted include auction house premiums) is not too bad an impulse splurge.

A song about Cindy Sherman's recent auction track record could conceivably be entitled Still Liquid After All These Years. Sherman is the closest thing contemporary art has to a rational, orderly, liquid market in the way of buying and selling her photographs. There is international depth to the demand the likes of which are rarely seen in the greater contemporary market. After the Museum of Modern Art purchased the Film Stills body of work for a reputed $1,000,000, there has been a profusion of her photos to hit the auction houses. Despite this factor, there has yet to be a marked downtown in collectors, dealers and curators enthusiasm in owning the work. This is truly consequential, with the photographs remaining tremendously focused and consistent over years without much in the way of variation. This is also an argument in support of the widely accepted notion that the market favors emblematic work that does not stray too far from the signature vocabulary of the artist. Specifically regarding Sherman, the level of connoisseurship that differentiates similarly editioned and sized prints from the same time periods can be very subtle and thus daunting for the untrained and trained eye alike. What makes one image of Cindy go for a quarter of a million dollars and another fetch only $30,000? Buyers at the high end beware. As an aside, existentially speaking, doesn't she ever tire of bending over the pond, playing dress-up and peering endlessly at her reflection?

Could it be the touchstone of an art recession? Did I detect some evidence of softening in the steam-rolling Damien Hirst market? Did the bacchanalian "bad boy" miss his numbers? In the way of trends pointing downward, the following could be an early indication for the future-look out if you are holding work considered not seminal or exceptional in quality, i.e., prints, or ominously for gluttonous collectors and institutions, some spot or spin paintings! For example, the recent auction results for the photo edition entitled With Dead Head from when artist was 16 years old! This print in an edition 15, was remade in 1991 when the 26 year old had since matured and/or had an epiphany about the merit of the original snap. It went from $74,000 at Phillips in May 2000 and the same amount at Christie's in November 1999 to $49,450 at Phillips last November 14th. A strange economic feat reared its head two days later, conceivably because of the pall that befell With Dead Head at Phillips, when the photo went on to sell for $44,650 during the evening sale (no less) at Christie's. When future buyers take note of the instant 10% depreciation from one day to the next, and the close to 50% drop in only six months, the NASDAQ appears a safe haven from the capriciousness of the seemingly mad art world. Sotheby's offered up 3-Bromobenzaldehyde, an 18 inch square, undated in the catalogue, spot painting with an estimate of $40,000-60,000. That worked out to $40,000-60,000 for one full-fledged spot flanked by eight additional spot fragments. You do the math to figure out why it did not sell.

The print portfolio The Last Supper, estimated at $30,000-40,000 at Sotheby's sold for $52,500 and two days later, at Christie's, when estimated at $25,000 - 30,000 actually sold for $49,350. For a lot-selling-lad whom needs to know: does a higher estimate necessarily indicate a higher hammer price? What makes the same thing (in apparently the same condition) have a loss in value of $3,150 from the 15th to the 17th of November 2000? Implausibly, as seen above, two days can make a hell of a difference at the contemporary art auctions. To test a theory, the next time two of the same lots come up for sale at different auction houses, wait for the second and underbid the results of the first. Yet, in defense of the incongruity and still-powerful Hirst market phenomenon, the suite was put into the "Prints and Multiples" section of the Christie's auction which occurred at the end of the day sale. At that time, as seen at Phillips, the tedium must have set in enough to relieve the portfolio of any momentum from the "regular" sale or the prior Sotheby's result. A rule when selling, if possible, is to stay away from a lessening in perception of value when the nomenclature "Prints and Multiples" is used to distinguish from "Contemporary Art" with regard to a particular lot. On the other hand, this could also result in buying opportunities.

Meatballs (not the Bill Murray film, though he would surely get a laugh out of this), a single image from the 13 print portfolio, further illustrates the creeping Hirst downturn. The individual silkscreen went for $4,830 at Phillips, which still amounts to an approximately $1000 premium if you bought the entire group of prints from Sotheby's or Christie's. Last May, Christie's sold the same individual screenprint for $5,288. The piece entitled Sausages from the portfolio was deemed not as tasty and sold last May for $3,760 at Christie's. As Hirst aptly put it himself in the title of a multiple with a Ping-Pong ball, hairdryer and Plexiglas container: What Goes Up Must Come Down.

If a John's flag or a Pollack all-over drip aren't within your budget, you can make an appropriationist pure play by going for an Elaine Sturtevant or Mike Bidlo, which both performed surprisingly well above estimates. These artists make exact replicas of modern masters under the conceptual rubric of...perhaps they just can't devise anything to fill the blank canvas with. In any event, a Sturtevant copy of a John's flag estimated at $8,000-10,000 sold for an astonishingly high $41,000 and for a Bidlo Not Pollack Pollack the result was $32,900 after an estimate of$10,000-15,000. Perhaps now is the time for the erudite Sturtevant or Bidlo to pick up a spin painting machine at their local toy store?

Up Ticks
Artists that recently have experienced a market resurgence include Richard Prince, who continues to spiral upwards for select works after his re-photograph of Brooke Shields recently hit $150,000 and Donald Baechler, who made a striking upwards move on a 1989 painting with an estimate of $30,000-40,000 which sold for $149,000. A flower work on paper also came in at double the high estimate. It has been ten long years since Baechler broke six figures at auction, though he has exhibited much strength throughout the years on the international gallery circuit. Exactly coinciding with Jeffrey Deitch snagging the Keith Haring estate from Tony Shafrazi, there was explosive growth with most Haring works to come to auction, save for the work Phillips couldn't sell; at the least, they are consistent. George Condo did nicely, with conservative growth over his recent auction history.

Down Ticks
A colossal surprise surfaced with regard to Matthew Barney, the darling of the smart art set, when his photographic print in an edition of 30 sold for $46,750 at Sotheby's as opposed to $76,375 when it graced the cover of Christie's day sale six months before in May 2000! Another instance of a nearly 50% loss of value, which using any economic barometer is clear evidence of trouble afoot. The 1980's excess and lack of imaginative content keeps Robert Longo un-saleable as opposed to unassailable (rightfully so?); Donald Sultan has not been able to claw his way out of the tar pits since the Japanese once kept his market afloat. The dreamy abstractions of Ross Bleckner stayed as soft on the market as they are to the eye. No movement at all was seen on the store-bought displays arranged by Haim Steinbach, who's shelve accumulations could be undervalued as the poor man's Damien Hirst. Peter Halley is treading water price-wise, though more consistently selling. Nan Goldin has begun a well-deserved dimming of her light, which highlights the fact that enough really is enough. Though Julian Schnabel exhibited some modest sales activity, most of his work consistently goes unsold; however, with the glowing reviews and Venice Film Festival first prize for his latest film, Before Night Falls, look for a resurgence in his paintings coming next to an auction house near you.

Personal Picks
The following artists' work I believe is extremely undervalued, especially in relation to what other pieces by similar artists in the same genre go for. Karen Kilimnik's (vs. Elizabeth Peyton) mysterious, romantic painterly depictions of banality á la Jeff Koons are charming. Gary Simons erasure pieces are poignant (vs. Glen Ligon); the playful assemblages of Jessica Stockholder and electrical sculptures and videos by Matthew McCaslin (vs. Jason Rhodes); black & white photographs by Nobuyoshi Araki (vs. Andres Serrano); paintings by Nicole Eisenman (vs. Sue Williams); Cady Noland silkscreens (vs. Warhol). The time is right for Christian Schumann's paintings including text and cartoons, with upcoming shows at Gagosian in Los Angeles and Jay Jopling in London in the coming year (vs. Chris Offili). Richard Artschwager's (vs. any 60's pop artist you can think of) Celotex, Formica, and wood paintings are wonderful and worth holding on to, I covet one. Good Frank Stella works on paper from the 1970's can still be had for $8,000-15,000 and are comparable to Treasury Bills in safety (vs. Ellsworth Kelly or Brice Marden). Robert Smithson (vs. Richard Serra) drawings are a steal at auction, as opposed to the retail market where the estate keeps prices artificially high due to payback for market neglect during his lifetime.

Additionally, I like Kenneth Noland (vs. Ugo Rondinone); and Larry Poons (vs. Terry Winters); and, anything Vito Acconci (vs. Marcel Duchamp). It seems positively shocking that the work of John Baldessari (vs. Paul Pfeiffer) does not reflect the absurd price movements of some of the younger photographers and new media artists-sometimes the flock overruns the shepherd.

Paul Thek appears in "Painting at the Edge of the World" at the Walker Art Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, a show (allegedly) "uniting 30 international artists who address the continued relevance-and expanding boundaries-of painting." This highfalutin language, in any event, signifies a great group exhibition in addition to Thek featuring the work of artists like Marcel Broodthaers, Mike Kelley, Thomas Schütte and younger talent such as Jim Lambie (UK) and Laura Owens (US). Paul Thek is a tragically under-recognized American artist who's retrospective The Wonderful World That Almost Was, which originated at the Wiitte de With in Rotterdam in 1995, traveled for two years to many European destinations, but never touched down in the US. Though Thek spent much of his life abroad, the breadth of his oeuvre and his refusal to follow formulaic paths favored by dealers and collectors, contributed to his penniless, near anonymity at the time of his premature death in 1988. Barely any US institutions had collected any of the varied work of Thek at the time, including the prescient, shocking fake meat sculptures he created in the early sixties, one occupying an authentic Warhol Brillo box upended, now in the collection of Hirschorn Museum in Washington D.C. Additionally, Thek painted fanciful, irreverent pictures, some including text, on sheets of newspaper and small canvases adorned with picture lights and gold frames he chose for them. Finally, the US seems to be following the lead of Europe to appreciate and showcase the work of an artist with a defiant social, political and historical outlook coupled with a beautiful aesthetic to boot. A rarity in conceptual art, hence a strong buy.

Shifting Landscapes
Neil Jenney will have a major, far-reaching exhibition at Gagosian, and the Tony Smith estate will shift from Paula Cooper to Matthew Marks. Look for a big move in both markets. Kenny Scharf, believe it or not, scored $79,900 on an 80's painting estimated at Christie's for $10,000-15,000. Perhaps the recent Los Angeles Gagosian exhibit jumpstarted things, for what else in the world could account for such a shift?

Inside information: if this recently noted tidbit pans out, one could conceivably trade ahead of the market and prosper from it, if not, I hereby disclaim responsibility. George Condo is rumored, by someone in the know, to be heading to Gagsoian Worldwide (has a nice Thomas Krens-ian ring to it) from Pace and recent co-exhibitor Jeffrey Deitch.

Without seeming too gloomy, what would a contemporary art recession look like reflected in the recent stellar five and six figure prices achieved by young artists such as Peter Doig; Cecily Brown; Damien Hirst; Chris Offili; Luc Tuymans; Andreas Gursky; Thomas Struth; Cindy Sherman; John Currin; Matthew Barney; Mariko Mori; Venessa Beecroft; Rineke Dijkstra (a photo with a $15,000-20,000 estimate at Christie's sold $102,800)? It wouldn't be pretty.

What will the spring behold? Some residential real-estate is already reportedly down 15% in New York City, and the Wall Street Journal recently led off the weekend section with a cover story entitled: The Luxury Slump. Could low earnings of technology companies that comprise the majority of the NASDAQ, which contributed to a 50% drop since last spring, foretell a general slump in the economy? Could restaurants, clothing boutiques, galleries and auction houses be the next areas to come up short? There is still plenty of room for a Dow Jones free-fall, especially in relation to the precipitous descent of the tech sector. Nevertheless, this may be an ideal time to assume a contrarian position and go long Microsoft and Apple while piling up on some of the artists mentioned above, all of which are still fairly reasonably priced. To date, an empirical study of some of the city's leading trendy restaurants (all in a day's work) seems to indicate the status quo of high living remains intact-people still have disposable money conspicuously in evidence.

Late in February the Armory art fair will open in expanded quarters in New York with the biggest of three NY venues since its inception, and the largest roster of exhibitors thus far. Look for strong but selective sales, with the fashionable artists du jour continuing to pull their weight. Earlier in February, Christie's and Sotheby's in London will auction off an interesting array of fresh contemporary art, save for the ubiquitous Last Supper portfolio by our friend Damien, and some other odds and ends. Sotheby's is offering the suite of 13 prints with an estimate of $28,400 - $42,600 and Christie's at $29,000 - $43,000, both low estimates are 50% lower than the November results: take heed. Should you go long Meatballs and short Sausages? Will the Hirst print portfolio continue to trend down? My guess is yes, steer clear of overly inflated editions notched as high as 150 copies. All in all, the spring auctions should show clear pockets of softness in the market, though the discerning connoisseur will be able to sort out values that can only rise in the near future. Next January, the Basel Art Fair swallows Art Miami in a corporate take-over that has the art world abuzz, and may finally posit Florida as a serious art destination for the international contemporary set. Despite the empty rhetoric of years past from local Miami art professionals, Basel Miami could truly expand upon the limited poles of New York and Los Angeles as the only cities that matter to the US art economy.

Supplemental Price Information

1. Richard Prince: "Spiritual America" with image of Brooke Shields sold for $151,000 on a $30,000 -- $40,000 estimate at Christies NY in November of 1999. Also, a fact I did not note, his record was reached in May of 2000 at Sotheby's with Untitled Cowboy selling for $269,750 on an estimate of $80,000 - $120,000. Another piece from the same sale went for $225,750 on a $70,000 - $90,000 estimate (Untitled Double Portrait). In November of 2000 a work sold for $99,500 on a 50-70,000 estimate from Christie's and at Sotheby's, a work sold for $104,250 on an estimate of 40-60,000.

Donald Baechler: "Ahmad's Flower #18" work on paper, Christie's November 2000 sold for $30,550 on a 10-15,000 estimate and also at Christie's "Conversazione" went for $149,000 on an estimate of $30-40,000, both pieces I referred to in my piece.

George Condo's November 2000 highlights included $29,500 for an untitled painting estimated at 10-15,000 at Sotheby's and $46,750 for "Still Life Composition" estimated at 15-20,000 also at Sotheby's.

2. Karen Kilimnik has never had a painting for sale at auction, only drawings, until February 9, 2001 at Christie's London, at which time "Scene I The Countryside 1600's" goes on sale with an estimate of $7,448 - $8,937 (conversion from British Pounds). It is a lovely painting that should do nicely. Her drawings, which are an important, striking part of her body of work reached a record of $11,400 at Sotheby's in November of 2000 on an estimate of 4 - $6,000. In 1998 a "scatter art" sculptural assemblage comprised of stuffed animals, fondue pot, artificial snow, etc. sold for $11,500 on an estimate of $10,000 - $15,000. Otherwise, her drawings generally sell in the range of $4,000 - $8,000.

Elizabeth Peyton, on the other hand, has sold one painting that is 14 x 18 inches for $24,150 at Phillips in November of 2000, and another at Christie's for $70,500 with an estimate of $20,000 - $30,000 that was only 19 x 16 inches. A drawing only 7 x 6 inches went for $10,800 at Sotheby's in November of 2000 with an estimate of 7 - $9,000.

Cady Noland, not since 1997 has achieved any price even near $20,000. Her record stands at $26,450 in 1997 May, at Sotheby's. Mostly, her work does not sell at auction and is frequently bought in by the various houses. Conclusion: Don't sell a Cady Noland at auction, period. It is unwise and will result in a costly mistake. On the other hand, you could have bought a fantastic silkscreen on aluminum for $2,700 at Sotheby's in November 2000 on estimates of $2-3,000 and 1,800-2,200 respectively (they both went for $2,700).

Nicole Eisenman has not had any major paintings come up, but her general prices are under $5,000 for works on paper. The record is $5,175 for a gouache at Sotheby's in November of 1999. Recently, in November of 2000 she went from $4,800 to bought in at Sotheby's.

Sue Williams recently scored $56,400 on a painting at Christie's in November of 2000 with an estimate of $30,000 - $40,000; and, in the same sale, $49,350 on a work with an estimate of $30 - 40,000. At Sotheby's, also in November 2000, she reached $49,050 on a painting carrying an estimate of $25,000 - 35,000. Strangely, two great paintings are estimated by Sotheby's in the upcoming February 2001 sale in London at $14,727 - $22,091 (pound conversions) each.

Thirty year old Christian Schumann has sold 4 paintings at auction ranging from 21,150 at Christie's in November 2000 (estimate 10,000 15,000) to $46, 750 at Sotheby's, May 2000 with a 20 - 30,000 estimate. In the recent past, his paintings that are chock full of cartoon imagery, text, and more realistic renderings have sold out at galleries from $25,000 - $35,000. The work smacks of postmodern representations: alive and bustling with a chaotic array of lifted images, and created texts all expertly and painstakingly painted on paper and laid down on canvas. Look for Gagosian to probably raise the prices to the mid-forties range (they have not been priced at the time of this writing) when he shows Schumann in his Beverly Hills gallery on March 12, 2001. Jay Jopling will show the paintings of Schumann sometime in the Spring of 2001.

Baldessari's record seems to be $203,750 for a work "Choosing (A game for two players) Garlic (in 9 parts) a mounted photograph from 1971 that was estimated for $30,000 - $40,000 at Sotheby's in May of 2000. However, on many occasions his work either does not sell and is bought in, or sells for under $25,000. One could easily pick up a hand painted photographic piece in multiple panels at a wildly reasonable 10 - $15,000; for example, Chrisite's London in February 2001 a photograph with pencil on paper from 1974 is estimated at $7,448 - $10,427 (converted from pounds).

Paul Pfeiffer, who recently appeared in PS 1 Museum's widely acclaimed Greater New York show and the preceding Whitney Biennial sells video pieces at Harlem's The Project Gallery at $25,000 for an edition of six. He has received the first $100,000 Buxbaum Award from the Whitney Biennial, and I am sure he has sold works for more than the average going rate of $25,000. His most known works are a mini screen TV showing a basketball repeatedly bouncing and another with an appropriated image of a basketball player celebrating with a clenched fist. Along with the appropriated works of Douglas Gordon, I award a big ho-hum.

Paul Thek has not had a work at auction since May of 1996 when a painting on canvas 9 x 12 inches sold for all of $1,955, entitled "Bread and Buttocks" dated 1979-80. At present, the retail value of such a painting would be between $15,000 - $20,000. In fact, over the years, Thek has only come to auction a surprisingly low eight times, with a whopping $8,800 for a classic meat sculpture called "Birthday Cake" from 1967 (in 1990 at Sotheby's). This work, measuring 19 x 24.5 x 24.5 inches appeared in his retrospective beginning at the Witte de With in 1995. Aside from being an invaluable masterful sculpture, this work would now sell retail for $75,000. Today, Thek paintings on newspaper print sell in the range of $15,000 and a recent sketchbook with nearly 60 pages of pencil drawings and text sold for $14,500.

Neil Jenney was born in 1945 and actually served as an assistant to Paul Thek in the 1960's when Thek created his signature body castings in latex "The Tomb (Death of a Hippie) and "Fishman". Jenney has stuck fairly close to a formula of painting quasi cartoon-ish figurative works with an underlying environmental motif, always framed in heavy black wood frames with white text emblazoned on the bottom portion of the frame. His recent prices have ranged in the $100,000 vicinity at Sotheby's and Christie's in November of 2000, though one reached $198,500 in Christie's Los Angeles in June of 2000. After a record of $308,000 for a 1969 painting achieved at Christie's in November if 1988 and similarly strong sales in the $200,000 neighborhood up to about 1991, Jenney entered a long term slump. In 2000, only perhaps till word escaped about the upcoming Gagosian show in March of 2001, did the paintings begin their present turnaround.

OUTLOOK FOR SPRING

Versus London no longer makes sense, except in the slight arbitrage that one can accomplish when a seller puts up an American work in the UK where the market is less acute or vice a versa. For instance. the bargain that may develop for a Karen Kilimnik or Sue Williams in London in February, and maybe a Glenn Brown or Mark Francis sold in the US. In the Spring, 2001 look for further selectivity in the auction market with a continuation of the slight, but noticeable trend downward, though we are not through with the spectacular results that will still occur for the lucky few. Hold on, this market has hiccuped, but the party will go on. At least for now...

*by Kenny Schachter, appearing in new German Magazine: Art Investor

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